For sports like football and baseball, there will be a stand-out star on all teams. There’s always someone who is just that little bit stronger, a little bit faster or has inherently sharper skills.
But what impact does that player have on sports betting? Can an individual win a team the English Premier League title? Can one elite superstar bring home the World Series? On their own? No.
Everything that happens in sports, from injuries to suspensions, can cause ripples in the odds. You can see this when checking out the latest money line, totals and spreads at baseball betting sites – star athletes play a big role in outcomes, but can’t influence everything.
Can One Player Carry a Team?
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Perhaps the most important question is to ask how good a star player is. Everything is relative, and the best player for a 0.41 baseball team could be a world away from the ability of a player for a World Series contender.
Looking at the best players from a betting perspective can be done in isolation with markets like Total RBIs or Home Runs in baseball betting, and the Anytime Goalscorer in soccer betting.
The bulk of a team’s goals may come from a player who is averaging a goal every other game and a world-class Short Stop could be the reason an MLB team is flying in their division, and individual player prop bets are great to target.
The Missing Star
Equally important is when a star athlete is not playing. When Lionel Messi moved to Inter Miami in 2023 he immediately looked a class above any other player in the MLS.
That was further highlighted by his absences when the team were nowhere near as effective in terms of results. But it is often easy to overcompensate when a team is missing such a star player.
Markets Affected
If an elite pitcher is missing from a team’s starting line-up, then it could make that team more vulnerable to conceding runs. But the absence may not be enough to drag the entire team down to a defeat.
The team is probably still good enough to win, thanks to their reserve pitcher. But it’s the total strikeouts, RBIs, home runs and other nuanced statistical areas of the match that are likely to be affected, and therefore should be noted for sports betting.
If Nigeria’s leading goalscorer is sidelined from a World Cup match against New Zealand for example, then the Super Eagles could be backed to win the game still, but maybe by a single-goal margin instead of two, or a lower Total Goals line could be targeted for the match.
Upper and Lower
There is a caveat to not expecting a team to fall apart just because their star player is missing. Stronger teams are less likely to be affected than weaker teams. A star midfielder for a relegation-threatened team may just be the very fine difference between that club staying out of the drop zone and going down. But if a star midfielder on a title-challenging team is out, then there is more likely to be better strength in depth in the squad to cover the absence.
Trading Markets
Speculation about player trades is fascinating and makes for big sports headlines. Players and managers typically get heavily linked with a certain team to whom they may get traded. The amount of coverage potential transfers make, destroys the betting value markets which are typically worth avoiding.
Investments
A fascinating time is when star players are traded to new clubs. The investments and reliance that some teams have on star players can typically create unexpected weaknesses elsewhere.
Trading in a star player can create imbalances through a change of tactics, which the team may not be familiar with, and that can impact immediate results. New players can change the entire complex of that team’s makeup, which naturally impacts the betting perspective.
In terms of a trade, especially with football, it’s good to look at what void the player has left as well. It’s typical for big teams to pick off the best talent from weaker teams. So some teams can, at the end of a transfer window, be left with a gaping void in quality that they just can’t afford to replace, which can affect things like relegation odds or the ability to win a division or conference.
In Summary
Star players in team sports can impact results whether on the field of play or not. But there are no absolutes in sports, which means there are no absolutes in sports betting outcomes. The best players are just another aspect that has to be taken into account for the bigger picture.
